US-China Trade War: What Continued Conflict Could Mean for Global Supply Chains
The US-China trade war is back in the headlines and it’s not going away anytime soon.
With a renewed Trump administration come renewed tariffs and tougher rhetoric on China. For global exporters, importers, and funders, this means one thing: it’s time to diversify or risk disruption.
At Convergence Capital Group, we’re watching these developments closely. As a cross-border supply chain finance platform serving clients primarily across Southeast Asia and South Asia, we see firsthand how market shifts create both risk and opportunity. Below, we break down the likely impact and where we can help.
🌐 1. Diversification Accelerates as Risks Mount
A prolonged trade war will likely push more US-based importers to move sourcing away from China. Even Chinese-based exporters may seek to reroute shipments via third countries or diversify production footprints to hedge against rising tariffs and regulatory scrutiny.
Result:Companies will increasingly look to Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, and Mexico for lower-cost, lower-risk sourcing alternatives.
⚙️ 2. Most Impacted Industries
The following sectors will face the greatest exposure to continued fallout:
- Apparel & Footwear– already under pressure from tariffs; sourcing will move to Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.
- Consumer Electronics– with China dominating production, expect disruption and a race to set up in India and Southeast Asia.
- Machinery & Components– higher duties could affect intermediate goods trade, forcing buyers to reconsider global sourcing strategies.
- Green Tech (EVs, solar)– where US-China competition is as much political as economic.
🥇 3. Primary Winners from Supply Chain Rewiring
Several countries stand to benefit:
- Vietnam– proven manufacturing hub with strong trade ties to both the US and China.
- India– rising as a production alternative, especially in electronics and pharmaceuticals.
- Bangladesh & Pakistan– competitive in textiles and ready-made garments.
- Mexico– geographical and trade advantage (USMCA) for nearshoring strategies.
🤝 4. How Convergence Capital Group Can Help
At Convergence, we provide receivables financeto exporters in emerging markets selling to developed country buyers—especially in moments like this when speed and access to capital are critical.
Here’s how we support this transition:
- Help exporters in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesiaaccess fast, non-dilutive working capital.
- Support new trade lanes by funding shipments on open account or DA/DP termseven when counterparties shift.
- Offer credit-insuredreceivables financing to mitigate risk when entering new markets or working with new buyers.
- Educate SMEs and exporters on navigating cross-border financing and payment risk during market disruptions.
📩 5. Stay Ahead: Join Our Global Trade Watchlist
Want to know how these changes affect yourbusiness?
✅ Book a free consultation with our advisory team ✅ Join our mailing listfor future updates, webinars, and educational materials on global trade and supply chain finance
The trade war may be unavoidable but its impact doesn’t have to be.
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